I Know First

Stock Market Forecast Based on Our State-Of-The-Art Predictive Algorithm
- September 11th, 2016 -
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1. The Week's Top Forecasts: 229% In 3 Months
I Know First's top-performing stocks came from the Transportation, Small Cap, Volatility Forecast, and Risk-Conscious packages this week. The highest returning stock was GOL from the Transportation package with an incredible 228.81% in only 3 months. ^VXO also performed excellently in the Volatility Forecast with a 40.57% return in a week. CWEI and BVX also performed extraordinarily with returns peaking at 52% in 1 month in the Small Cap package. The highest average return came from the Transportation Stocks package and was 41.27%. Additional high average returns for these forecasts were 13.35%, 12.20%, and 8.11%, respectively. These easily outperformed the S&P 500's average returns of 3.55%, -0.07%, -1.98%, and 0.48%

2. Stock Forecast: Daily Stock Selection based on a Self-Learning Algorithm
This article shows the results of trading using the I Know First algorithm. From the period of January 7th through August 31st, I Know First returned up to 49.10% while the S&P 500 returned only 9.08%. For more data about the tests read the full article.

3. Greatest 3-Month Returns:
In the 3-month time period, the highest returns came from the Brazil Stocks, Small Cap Stocks, and Top 10 Stocks packages. This stock returned 244.38% in just 3 months. Other excellent returns came from CWEI and NRP with 128.53% and 106.39%. The averages for these forecasts were 57.04%, 33.93%, and 14.08%, which significantly outperformed the S&P 500's 3.27%, 4.15%.

4. Month-Long Returns Reaching 50%:
The best performing 30-day forecasts were from the 52 Weeks High, Fundamental, and Computer Industry packages. The greatest return came from BVX with 51.15% in the 52 Weeks High package. SINA and HWAY increased significantly as well with 46.34% and 45.79%. The I Know First averages were 14.04%, 12.98%, and 12.45% within 7 days as opposed to the S&P 500's low returns of 0.73%, and 0.15%. 
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5. 14-Day Returns up to 38.33%
In the last 14 days, the greatest returns came from these packages: Top 10 Stocks, European Stocks, and Bank Stocks. The largest growth came from a stock in the European Stock package with 38.33%. CHK and GNW also returned a strong 23.64% and 16.67%. These forecasts averaged 6.93%, 6.16%, and 5.08 which beat out the S&P 500's 0.27%, 0.18%, and -0.03%.

6. 7-Day Returns Reach 30.37%

The Risk-Conscious, International, Transportation, and Currency were the strongest returning 7-day packages this week. MTL returned 30.37% in the International package making it the top week-long earner. The Currency Forecast had a hit ratio of 69.23%GOL and TOO also performed well with 22.44% and 18.12%. These packages had average returns of 9.26%, 8.41%, and 8.11% compared to the S&P 500's 0.46% and 0.48%.

7. Returns Topping 18.57% in 3 Days
The most impressive 3-day returns came from the 52 Weeks High, Fundamental, and Brazil Stock packages. This stock returned 18.57% in only 3 days. LEE and GOL performed superbly returning 16.67% and 13.67%. The I Know First averages for these forecasts were 6.28%, 5.98%, and 5.79%. This eclipsed the S&P 500's small return of 0.72%.

8. During the past week, both co-founders of I Know First, Yaron Golgher (CEO) and Dr. Roitman (CTO), were featured for an interview on Euro Money, to discuss at length the future of AI algorithmic trading, specifically with regards to forex trading.
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  1. On July 24th, 2016, an I Know First analyst published an article about Intel. He believed that investors should take advantage of the post-earnings drop in stock price. The firing in employees is what caused the low earnings estimate, but Intel is still a leader in desktop and server processors. The analyst predicted a rebound in stock price and the I Know First algorithm agreed. Since then, INTC increased 28% in accordance with the analyst and algorithm's predictions.
  2. A little over a month ago an I Know First analyst wrote an article about Seagate. He predicted a stock increase due to the consolidating PC market. Furthermore, Seagate will produce products that will outwit competitors. Strong smartphone sales would also help Seagate perform well. The I Know First algorithm also believed Seagate was undervalued. Since then, STX increased 25% which both the analyst and the algorithm predicted would happen.
  3. This article, published by an I Know First analyst on July 19th, 2016, analyzed MasterCard. The analyst believed MasterCard will likely increase. MasterCard has been expanding payment platforms which makes their services easier to use for all. They also redesigned their logo and are making an effort to widen their customer base in untapped countries. They were also adversely affected from Brexit, which was likely to be a short-term dip. The algorithm agreed and believed the stock will increase as well. MA has risen 10% since then, which proved both the analyst and algorithm's predictions accurate.
  4. This article, published mid-July, analyzed Cheniere Energy. It discussed reasons LNG will likely increase. New CEO Jack Fusco can bring new innovations to Cheniere. Cheniere also started exporting natural gas to Europe (making it the first US company to do so). Natural gas's price is also hiking which benfits Cheniere. Both the analyst and the algorithm rated LNG a buy. LNG has risen 17% since then proving their predictions correct
Get Today's Top 10 Stock Picks Based on Algorithms
Algorithmic Performance Review & Articles
Algorithmic Trading: Swing Trading Based on Machine learning
Following the development of Dr. Lipa Roitman's understanding of relying on the 5-day simple moving average as a secondary trigger for entry and exit, the I Know First R&D team has developed a complementary model to support his thesis. We tested the model from July 1st  2014 to June 30th 2015, a period of one year.
Using the strategy stock investors made a return of 34%. The strategies annual deviation was 18.17% which results in a Sharpe ratio of 1.77.
Similarly the strategy Interest Rate investors made a return of 40.11%. The strategies annual deviation was 20.33% which results in a Sharpe ratio of 1.87.
With currencies we filter our to G10 pairs and apply a 10x leverage. Here the strategy worked particularly well resulting in a total return of 504%, annual standard deviation of 36.73% and Sharpe ration of 13.46.

You can find the full report and data & the combined hedge fund stats HERE.
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Routine Algorithmic Performance
I Know First provides retail investorshedge fund managersfamily office managers & financial advisors with tailored algorithmic services. 
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Upgrade Notes: Introducing the new Algorithmic Strategy Interface

I Know First R&D team is happy to announce that we are now supporting a highly interactive user interface to support your strategy and automate processes. This guide will review some of the new features and how to use them.

Many of our subscribers read the article “I Know First Algorithm Performance Analysis (Part 2)” which discussed how to integrate algorithmic signals with market momentum to lower your risk and maximize your returns. Since then we have released various videos and articles discussing this strategy.

Many implemented it, however were a little deterred by the complexity of it, as it really does require you to follow the price of every recommendation on a daily basis. Our team has tediously been working to integrate a module into excel which would allow you to trade according to the 5-day simple moving average swing model with ease. 

Read More Here

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