| I was always interested in doing things the big way, in a manner that could help many people and change their lives for the better. This is the reason I left the comfortable life in the Kibbutz. This is why I founded the Biofeed company that developed crop protection solutions suitable for everyone and everywhere. This is why I founded Dream Valley company, which offers a complete value and supply chain based on the Israeli model yet adjusted and dedicated to all farmers and smallholders in developing economies. Therefore, I have always seen agro mega-projects as an exciting subject and the only thing that could save smallholders from poverty. But, as they say, God is in the details, and the question is behind the words "agro mega-projects." AGRO MEGA-PROJECTS For years, and more than ever those days, mega agro projects in developing economies seem to be the easy and most obvious solution to the painfully slow progress, stagnation, and poverty spread along their agro sector. After all, what could be better than a 50,000-hectare agro-project involving globally leading agrotech or agrochemical companies who bring their state-of-the-art technologies, practices, know-how, and a basket full of promises to jump-start the local agro sector? For countries whose agro sector employs over 50% of the national workforce from which over 50% suffer poverty, such a promise is valued more than gold. THE MATH The math is simple; by promoting agro mega-projects, the government hopes to solve several strategic challenges at the same time – 1) Hunger (SDG 2) – We will produce enough food to ensure enough calories for our people. 2) Self-reliance – Following the project, you will control your food supply and future. 3) Supply chain – Reducing dependence on global supply chain events, e.g., COVID-19 and the Ukraine-Russia war. 4) Jump-start of the agro sector – Using state-of-the-art agrotech, methods, and know-how. 5) Poverty (SDG 1) – The project's ripple effect will cause smallholders to escape poverty. 6) Food price – Locally grown food cost less than imported. 7) Export and source of income – Exporting surplus production will result in a flow of foreign currency income. 8) Pride – Successful mega projects are a source of national pride, inspiration, and motivation to succeed. 9) Scalable – Mega-projects are big, scalable, and simple to copy-paste to other agro sectors. Mega-projects have a long list of advantages that make you ask, why didn’t we do more of it until now? THE DARK SIDE Previously, I spoke enthusiastically in favor of agricultural projects, though not necessarily mega-projects, stating that “the present is the best time ever for non-developed economies to improve, revolutionize, and re-establish their agro sector as a pivot in their national economy.” Nevertheless, it is imperative to have a realistic view of what a mega-project can achieve and what it can’t. So, let's go through the above wish list and see how each paragraph is in reality. 1) Hunger – When a country produces more food, its risk of experiencing hunger is lower. (Score: +++) 2) Self-reliance – Producing your food is the highest state of self-reliance. Yet, you remain reliant on foreign technologies, knowledge, and experts. Furthermore, copy-paste and scale-up a project that worked elsewhere doesn’t mean it will work in your country due to culture, business environment, and other considerations. (Score: ++-) 3) Supply chain – The supply chain is shorter and less susceptible to interference. However, the local supply chain is still connected to the global one, as farmers and nations found during the COVID-19 pandemic when African farmers couldn’t get seeds to grow staple crops and pesticides to fight the locusts from companies producing those on other continents or even moving them within the country. (Score: ++-) 4) Jump-start of the agro sector – Experience shows that mega-projects are like satellites; the state owns them, but they hover above, disconnected from their social environment. While over 90% of local farmers are non-professional smallholders acting under the "Poverty Cycle," mega-projects are always industrial-professional businesses operating under the "Prosperity Cycle.” As presented in previous columns, those are two different “languages” with multi-barriers that prevent them from effectively working together. Hence, we can't expect any significant positive impact on the local smallholders. However, we may see a positive effect on other sectors, e.g., logistics and international trading. (Score: ---) 5) Poverty – Due to the above reasons, mega-projects will not positively impact smallholders. Looking at countries already having mega-projects, we don't see the expected ripple effect, and smallholders remain in poverty. (Score: ---) 6) Food price – As often with government and mega-projects, the project's final cost could be 1.5 to 3 times above planned, making its production more costly than expected. Furthermore, the project company has a contract with the government (i.e., a premium client) and ensures their payment is based on profitable food prices. It could result in a situation where buying from a foreign producer (unprotected by gov. agreements) will be less costly. Remember, in an agro mega-project, we replace the import of food, e.g., grains, with the import of the Agricultural Package that produces that food. In both cases, the process involves import. (Score: ---) 7) Export and source of income – Reaching the point where the project produces enough surplus that it can export and compete in global markets is the Holy Grail. However, it is rare to see an export from a mega project in a developing country. (Score: +--) 8) Pride –This is an important issue that should not be underestimated. National pride will increase if the project is successful. However, since many projects fail, the effect is often the opposite of that desired. (Score: +--) 9) Scalable – Theoretically, they are scalable, but most mega-projects are short-lived in practice. If maintaining them is difficult, imagine how expensive and complex it is to scale or copy them to other areas and agro sectors. (Score: ---) | 
