Machine Learning Trading, Stock Market, and Chaos Have you ever wondered how the I Know First Algorithm is so accurate when there's so many seemingly random and chaotic events happening all the time in the stock market? Well, the first thing to understand is there's a key difference between random and chaotic events. There is a notable difference between chaos and randomness making chaotic systems predictable, while random ones are not. Real world processes may seem random to the untrained eye, but upon closer examination, we see that such processes are in fact chaotic. Natural processes such as seismic events, population growth, and stock markets are all examples of such systems and can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. Chaotic processes are controlled by three competing paradigms: Stability, Memory, and Sudden and Drastic Change.
Stability is seen in the stock market as a stock trend either increases or decreases. While the share price of the stock changes over the given time period, the trend is unchanging. There is also a degree of instability here because of what is called a “tired trend.” As a stock is rising and continues to rise, there comes a point when investors start to question how long the trend can continue as it has. As people begin to lose confidence in the trend the stability decreases. In this case, a small event that would normally have a little effect can be substantial enough to reverse the trend entirely. This is referred to as the Sand Pile Avalanche Model when one grain of sand eventually causes the pile to collapse. Memory is the influence that past events have on a current trend. A stock that has been known to rise will likely continue to do so. Drastic and unforeseen changes can also occur, completely reversing a trend with little or no warning. Black Swan events, as they are referred to, are themselves unpredictable but are useful in making future predictions. The cycles of rising and falling trends that occur in chaotic processes have varying time periods, quiet periods can be followed by a large jump or vice versa. Together, these properties of chaotic processes make it possible to make predictions about the system using probability. To learn more about the statistical basis for chaotic modeling as well as how we are using it in our algorithmic predictions: Read More.
SBUX Stock Forecast: Starbucks' Struggles and Big Bucks in China If you tried to grab a cup of coffee last Tuesday from Starbucks, you wouldn't have been able to because the company closed all of their stores to conduct racial bias training. You've probably seen news about the turmoil surrounding Starbucks following the arrest of two men who were sitting in Philadelphia store. Starbucks is coping accordingly and trying to rectify the situation. But will Starbucks ever be able to regain its purported image of being an inclusive space for all? Since the incident, Starbucks has changed its in-store policies to allow both customers and non-customers to be in the store and on top of that, Starbucks forwent millions of dollars in revenue to close its stores and conduct the training. It appears these steps have quelled public outcry.
So what's next for Starbucks? The company has put an emphasis on continuing to develop in China, an area that has shown large growth since Starbucks entered the market. Currently, Starbucks operates around 3,300 stores in 141 cities in China. Starbucks has increased its new store growth to nearly 600 per year, a staggering number, that has a new store opening in mainland China every 15 hours. By the end of the 2022 fiscal year, Starbucks plans to expand to 100 more cities for a total of 240 all over the country. Starbucks expects to double its presence in China to 6,000 stores in the same time period. Starbucks is also increasing its presence in the consumer packaged goods (CPG) and ready to drink (RTD) markets, which are both growing at rapid rates. To see more aboutabout SBUX and its CPGdeal:Read more
No 'Timeout' on the Rebound for Footlocker- Stock Price Jump After Q1 On May 25, Foot Locker announced its Q1 2018 results that exceeded market expectation. The revenue has finally come back to trend after three consecutive quarters of decrease. Sales increased by 1.2% to $2,025 million this quarter, compared to $2,001 in Q1 2017, mainly because of the effect of foreign exchange rate fluctuations. Both net income and gross profit margin also brought good news for investors. Although the net income decreased by 8.33% y/y, it was clearly a recovery from the loss in Q4 2017. On the same line, gross profit margin increased to 32.9% from 31.4% in Q4 2018.
On top of that, while Nike's new deal with Amazon may seem like it will be trouble for Footlocker, it may actually be good for the company. As Nike contributes to about 70% of the products sold, Foot Locker’s sales highly rely on the performance of Nike’s new products. Recent trends have shown an uptick in searches for Nike and a reversal of Adidas' previous win in searches. Some felt FL's business is hugely threatened by the deal between Amazon and Nike, in which Nike will open an official shop on Amazon. Many were scared that the deal would destroy the direct-to-customer segment of Foot Locker, however, the deal will give Nike more control of the selling narrative on Amazon. Currently, there are more than 72,000 unlicensed third-party vendors that sell of Nike products on Amazon, but thanks to the deal, Nike can now stop them. Consequently, the deal has eliminated a lot of competitors for Foot Lockers. To learn more about FL's potential including our DCF price target:Read more.
The AI Gold Mine: Predicting Stock Market Success + Interview with our CEO I Know First cofounders Yaron Golgher and Dr. Lipa Roitman presented at the 2018 Deep Learning in Finance Summit in late April. In anticipation for the summit, Chloe Pang from Re:Work interviewed I Know First CEO Yaron Golgher about deep learning, the future of AI and the stock market and much more. To learn the answer to the following questions: which industries or areas will deep learning will have the most beneficial impact? What challenges did I Know First when introducing deep learning techniques within the financial industry? How disruptive will the popularity of deep learning be for the trading industry? Read more.
The Cloud Dream Drives Amazon Surge Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) is keen on global infrastructure expansion and recently eyed vast potential in the Latin American market. Amazon Web Services (AWS) aims to expand cloud-computing operations by adding data centers in the region. As the unquestioned market leader with a market share of nearly 40%, AWS is continuing its steady upward growth and has brought Amazon robust cash inflow with an expanding customer base. According to Bain & Company research, global cloud IT market revenue is predicted to increase from $180 billion in 2015 to $390 billion in 2020, attaining a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 17%, and AWS achieved 42.88% sales increase in the fiscal year of 2017. AWS maintained its market dominance by providing options from pay-as-you-go service for smaller startups to a multi-year contract model that targets long-served companies like Siemens and Airbnb, and also by serving customers from public sectors in building scalable and stable users systems.
To maintain its market share, besides expanding operations, AWS also lowered service prices and added solutions and products. As long-term contracts makes up a relatively small portion of revenue, where the majority comes from shorter commitments, AWS applies a model that provide a lot of flexibility based on customers’ actual business needs with options including hourly payment. Amazon is also trying to differentiate its services to win this “cloud features war”. New machine learning services like Amazon Transcribe and Amazon Translate create more situational applications like customer services, subtitling, and search. The expansion of VMware Cloud enables the combination of a wide variety VMware tools and interfaces with the flexibility and power of the AWS cloud. Read More.
I recently traveled to Asia which might explain why we've had so much exciting news to share with you about this region of the world. Our newest announcement is that I Know First has been selected from a pool of over 200 companies to be part of the Japan International Asset Management Consortium (JIAM) fin-tech showroom! In the opening event, we gave a short 5 minute presentation to everyone and then gave a deeper explanation of the I Know First algorithm to clients who were interested and wanted to learn more about our services. JIAM's goal is to support the Japanese asset management industry as well as the firms and individuals involved in this growing industry. JIAM collaborates with Japanese government agencies such as the Tokyo Metropolitan Government to support their efforts. JIAM's new showroom allows potential clients to walk around and get a feel for a large variety of different fin-tech solutions and we are excited about this new exposure we will receive.
We've been working hard to expand our reach in Japan since we first started making predictions for the Tokyo Stock Exchange at the end of the 2017. Our place in the showroom as well as our newest partnership with the Japanese fintech firm IST, which I talked about in last week's newsletter, will allow us to reach new levels and develop our business even more in Japan.
Warmest Regards, Yaron Golgher, Co-Founder and CEO
COMMODITIES - GOLD - CURRENCIES
Currencies Prediction: Returns 68.52% Hit Ratio In 7 Month May 31 |Read More
ForEx Forecast: Returns 72.22% Hit Ratio In 1 Month May 30 |Read More
Commodities Prediction: Returns Up To 7.29% In 7 Days May 29 |Read More
Currencies Prediction: Returns Up To 73.58% Hit Ratio In 14 Days May 29 |Read More
Commodities Prediction: Returns Up To 8.32% In 1 Month May 24 |Read More
Commodities Prediction: Returns Up To 5.29% In 3 Days May 21 |Read More
Amidst political turmoil in Italy and Spain and increased uncertainty for the Eurozone, the Euro plummeted, particularly against the Japanese yen (JPY). Italian President Sergio Mattarella’s decision to veto Paolo Savona, who has been vocally critical of the euro, for the job of economy minister. In doing this, Mattarella blocked the populist coalition he promised after the general election in March which has prompted populist parties to call for new elections. In the meantime, Carlo Cottarelli, who was previously a director at the International Monetary Fund, has been appointed to run a stop-gap government. However, Cottarelli will most likely not have enough support from Parliament, so new elections may be held in the near future.
At the same time, instability has risen in Spain where Mariano Rajoy, prime minister, will face a no-confidence vote on Friday after many of Rajoy’s senior party members were convicted of corruption. The results of this vote could oust the prime minister and could replace his minority government with the Socialist party. In both Spain and Italy, it is possible for populists to gain even more power which threatens the future strength of the euro. The Japanese Yen rallied because of its safe haven currency qualities as other markets were spooked by European geopolitical instability. JPY also received a boost from lower US treasury yields.
APPLE STOCK NEWS
Apple News: Privacy Is A Fundamental Human Right May 16 |Read More
Apple News: Apple Leading Innovation With Q2 Results May 16 |Read More
Apple News: Why The Mac Mini & iPad Mini Deserve Upgrades May 14 |Read More
Apple News: Creating A Healthier Planet Through Innovation April 29 |Read More
Apple News: Why Project Marzipan Is Important to Apple's Future April 15 |Read More
Apple News: The Killer Gaming/Enterprise Tablet March 28 |Read More
Apple's Worldwide Developer's Conference is coming up on June 4, 2018 at the McEnery Convention Center in San Jose, Calif. The primary focus of the event is contenting pros, and decision makers for technical sessions and brainstorming over the direction of Apple’s software universe in the coming year. In contrast to last year, Apple is expected to introduce new software, with some hardware announced. In addition, Apple is also expected to update operating systems for Mac computers, the Apple Watch and Apple TV
As of last year, Apple used the event as a launch pad not just for OS updates- macOS High Sierra, Apple iOS 11, but also for major hardware moves – MacBook Air, new iMacs. This year Apple is expected to update its mobile iOS and computing-centric macOS operating systems. The software update for existing iPhones and iPads is expected to be called iOS12 while the next version of macOS is still under wraps. Naturally, you can expect stability and performance improvements with the new operating systems. Apple’s Siri is expected to get smarter as Apple’s offering has fallen woefully behind competitors like Amazon’s Alexa and Google’s Assistant in recent years. WWDC is a developer’s event, but that hasn’t stopped Apple from introducing new hardware products in the past. For this year’s event the chances that Apple will introduce new products are slim, but if they do, users should expect updated MacBook, improved Airpods and maybe a new Apple Watch.
